Monday, June 23, 2025

Stock Market Update: Major Index Fade, US Strike to Iran



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Introduction

Markets opened the week with early gains but struggled to hold momentum as geopolitical tensions and sector rotations took center stage. U.S. indexes initially reacted to President Donald Trump’s announcement of strategic bombings on Iranian nuclear sites, boosting defense-related stocks. However, broader market sentiment cooled by midday, leaving key indexes flat or lower by the close.



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Market Overview

  • Dow Jones Industrial Average: Early gains faded

  • Nasdaq Composite: Closed flat after morning strength

  • S&P 500: Mixed performance among sectors, ended flat

  • Russell 2000: Reversed lower, down 0.7%

Despite a strong start, small caps led the downside. The Russell 2000 continues to struggle under its 10-day and 200-day moving averages, signaling broader hesitation in growth areas. Meanwhile, defensive sectors like utilities and consumer discretionary outperformed, while financials and health care lagged.



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Sector & Trade Highlights

Sectors Leading:

  • Consumer Discretionary

  • Utilities (Defensive positioning)

Sectors Lagging:

  • Financials

  • Health Care

  • Energy (Muted performance despite geopolitical news)

Growth stocks were particularly pressured, facing renewed selling pressure after recent resilience. While volatility remains elevated, this environment still offers selective opportunities for traders with tight risk management.


Market Mover: Trump Orders Strikes on Iranian Nuclear Sites

President Trump confirmed over the weekend that the U.S. launched strikes on three major Iranian nuclear facilities—Fordow, Natanz, and Esfahan—aligning with Israel’s military effort. In his announcement, Trump declared, “Now is the time for peace!” while also warning of continued strikes if Iran does not de-escalate.

The military development spurred initial interest in defense and aerospace names, though broader indexes did not follow through on early strength.


Economic Calendar: Key Data Ahead

Traders now shift focus to key economic releases this week:

  • PCE Inflation Report (Friday): Forecast 0.14% MoM increase; Core PCE expected to hit 2.6% YoY

  • Weekly Jobless Claims (Thursday): Insight into labor market strength

  • Personal Income & Spending Data

These indicators will influence expectations for the Federal Reserve's next moves, especially as rate cut projections remain muted for 2025.


Market Trend: Sideways Consolidation Continues

Despite momentary surges, the market remains in a sideways trend. The Nasdaq's outside day with a low close highlights the choppy nature of recent sessions. On the weekly chart, however, indexes remain resilient. Due to this indecision, it's prudent to:

  • Stay off margin

  • Cut losing positions quickly

  • Prioritize risk-controlled setups


Watchlist Stocks

1. JPMorgan Chase (JPM)

  • Buy Price: $269.52

2. Nvidia (NVDA)

  • Buy Price: $153.13


 Active Trades

Trade 1: Rubrik Inc. (RBRK)

  • Position Size: Half

  • Buy Range: $88.00 – $89.76

  • Target: $90.50 – $92.37

  • Stop Loss: $84.56

Trade 2: ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK)

  • Position Size: Full

  • Buy Range: $62.34 – $63.59

  • Target: $63.36 – $64.32 (Begin trimming)

  • Stop Loss: $60.54

Current Capital Allocation: 75% invested


Conclusion

As the markets digest the geopolitical impact and brace for inflation data, caution remains the name of the game. While selected setups are emerging, the current sideways trend suggests prioritizing preservation of capital. Active traders should focus on disciplined entries and strict stop management until a clear directional breakout confirms broader strength.

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